Despite declining shipments of steel and aluminum from U.S. and Canadian metals service centers in November, the latest Metals Activity Report from the Metals Service Center Institute indicates there are signs that the market may be stabilizing.
While U.S. steel shipments fell in November, the rate of decline was only about half the rate experienced in November 2008, and Canadian steel shipments were down just 4% from those of a year ago. Both rates of decline were substantially lower than in October.
Aluminum shipments in the United States and Canada also declined, but at only about two-thirds of the amount as last month’s rate of decline. The slowing rate of decline for metals shipments suggests a bottoming that is beyond the normal seasonal shipment slowdown.
According to the report, November shipments of steel products from U.S. service centers totaled nearly 2.33 million tons, 14.1% below shipments in November 2008. Year-to-date (11-month) shipments of 27.3 million tons reflect a 38.5% decrease from comparable YTD 2008 shipments. By the end of November, steel product inventories at U.S. metals service centers totaled 5.86 million tons, 1.2% lower than at the end of October and 35.9% lower than at this time in 2008. At current shipping rates, this volume represents a 2.5-month supply.
In Canada, steel shipments from metals service centers totaled 429,200 tons in November, 4.4% lower than steel volume in November 2008. For the year-to-date, Canadian steel shipments total nearly 4.6 million tons, a 27.8% decline from last year. Steel inventories finished November at 994,100 tons, a 2.3% increase from October but 18.9% below year-ago inventories. At current shipping rates, Canadian steel inventories represent a 2.3-month supply.
Aluminum shipments from U.S. metals service centers totaled 79,500 tons in November, a 19.1% decline from November 2008, while year-to-date aluminum shipments of 958,400 tons are 39.8% below those of a year ago. Month-end aluminum inventories at U.S. metals centers totaled 255,900 tons 0.8% lower than at the end of October and 30.3% below year-ago stockpiles. At current shipping rates, that amount represents a 3.2-month supply.
Canadian metals service centers shipped 10,600 tons of aluminum in November, 16.3% lower than year-ago volume, while year-to-date shipments of 117,800 tons were 24.5% below comparable YTD 2008 shipments. At 26,600 tons, Canadian aluminum inventories were unchanged at the end of November and 24% below year-ago stockpiles. At current shipping rates, that total represented a 2.5-month supply.
The Metals Activity Report (MAR), based on data from metals service centers in the United States and Canada, is produced by the Metals Service Center Institute and a third-party econometrics and strategy firm, McCoy, Scott & Co.
Founded in 1909, the Metals Service Center Institute has more than 375 members operating from about 1200 locations in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and elsewhere in the world. Together, MSCI members constitute the largest single group of metals purchasers in North America, amounting each year to more than 55 million tons of steel, aluminum, and other metals, with about 300,000 manufacturers and fabricators as customers. MSCI’s membership also includes most ferrous and non-ferrous industrial metals producers in North America. Metals service centers inventory and distribute metals and provide first-stage fabrication services.